Category: Research
September 27, 2022
Sustainability and the Dramatic Importance of Systemic Analysis

You only appreciate the importance of systemic analysis once you see the kind of new knowledge it delivers. There is much talk of systemic analysis in finance but there is very little research on the subject, not to mention a […]

May 16, 2022
The Next Global Worst Nightmare Scenario

In today’s turbulent world, punctuated by destabilizing events of increasing intensity and frequency, it is vital to know what a worst-case scenario is and which factors are critical. What were considered low-probability events in the past must be countered today […]

July 2, 2020
Making Predictions Based on Murphy’s Laws

The origin of the well-known Murphy’s Laws may be traced to Edwards Air Force Base in 1949. Murphy’s Laws may sound funny but most of us will agree that they correctly reflect the reality more than simple anecdotes. Because of […]

July 2, 2020
The European Union: Too Big to Fail or Too Fragile to Survive?

The covid-19 has accentuated the fragmentation of the European Union. In a moment of political fragility we have performed a resilience rating analysis of the union as a whole as well as of the individual countries and specific macro regions. […]

July 2, 2020
How Complexity Anticipates Black Swans – the 2020 Market Crash.

The 2020 stock market crash was a global stock market crash that began on 20 February 2020. On 12 February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite, and S&P 500 Index all finished at record highs (while the NASDAQ […]

March 26, 2020
Investing Based on Systemic Analysis of Markets

According to the Principle of Fragility, a less complex business is less fragile, hence potentially sustainable for longer periods. The ‘Too-Complex-To-Survive’ concept is one thing to always keep in mind. Excessively articulated and fragmented businesses tend to last less. The […]

March 26, 2020
The Principle of Ignorance

Observing our society one comes to the inescapable conclusion that on average, the level of ignorance increases, much like the volatility of the global economy. True, we do have more technology, but people have traded books for tablets and this […]

February 17, 2020
Systemic Risks and Large-Scale Complexity Analysis

In the era of globalized and interconnected economy, it is becoming clear that all corporations, banks and countries form part of a huge system of systems. As turbulence increases and the possibility of shocks and extreme events rises, the importance […]

February 11, 2020
On Modern Volatility Measures

Volatility is a key concept in finance. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that […]